Gli effetti del Servizio civile sull'occupabilità dei giovani. Una stima tramite Statistical Matching
De Luca, Federica; Ferri, Sergio
Partendo dai dati campionari relativi a due popolazioni di volontari del Servizio civile, intervistate ‘ex-ante’ ed ‘ex-post’ rispetto all’esperienza di servizio, il contributo propone una stima degli effetti del Servizio civile rispetto alla dimensione dell’occupabilità (outcome variable) dei giovani coinvolti dal programma, tramite analisi controfattuale basata sulla tecnica dell’abbinamento statistico (statistical matching). Si presentano preliminarmente la policy e le dimensioni del ‘fenomeno’, si delineano i profili di giovani che il Servizio civile intercetta nella sua forma ordinaria in termini socio- anagrafici, si propongono i risultati in termini di employment, infine, si presenta una stima degli effetti del Servizio civile sulla dimensione dell’occupabilità misurata tramite OKI- Inapp, un indice composito multidimensionale probabilistico elaborato da Inapp.
Aina, Carmen; Brunetti, Irene; Mussida, Chiara; Scicchitano, Sergio
L’articolo analizza le conseguenze della prima ondata della pandemia da Covid-19 sulla distribuzione dei salari in Italia. In particolare, si sono evidenziate quali categorie di lavoratori e settori economici hanno sofferto maggiormente tale situazione e in che misura sia il livello effettivo di smart working che la propensione a lavorare da casa abbiano influenzato la distribuzione dei salari. Si utilizza un dataset innovativo ottenuto dall’unione di due indagini campionarie: la Rilevazione Continua sulle Forze Lavoro (RCFL) svolta dall’Istat e l'Indagine Campionaria sulle Professioni (ICP) condotta dall’Inapp.
Sometimes you cannot make it on your own. How household background influences chances of success in Italy
Bonacini, Luca; Gallo, Giovanni; Scicchitano, Sergio
In questo articolo, esploriamo i canali tramite i quali il background familiare determina le opportunità educative e sociali di un individuo in Italia. La nostra analisi si basa su un ricco set di dati che contiene informazioni sia sugli individui che sui loro veri genitori, nonché informazioni sulle capacità non cognitive degli individui. Questo lavoro rappresenta anche il primo tentativo di valutare se e in quale misura i tratti della personalità influenzano le opportunità educative e lavorative in Italia e come interagiscono con il contesto familiare. I risultati evidenziano che il livello di istruzione dei genitori è più rilevante del livello delle abilità professionali dei genitori nel determinare le opportunità educative e sociali degli individui. L'inclusione delle variabili "Big-5" nel modello aiuta a controllare per le variabili omesse e riduce l'eterogeneità non osservata nella mobilità sociale intergenerazionale tra individui con lo stesso livello di istruzione e competenze. I nostri risultati mostrano un mercato del lavoro duale e disuguale.
Brunetti, Irene; Ricci, Andrea
Il paper analizza l’impatto che l’incentivo fiscale alle assunzioni – previsto per gli iscritti al programma Garanzia Giovani – esercita sulle decisioni di impresa in materia di assunzione e cessazione dei rapporti di lavoro. A tal fine si utilizza un dataset di tipo employer-employees che integra le informazioni derivanti dalle Rilevazione Imprese e Lavoro (RIL-Inapp) con quelle riguardanti le storie contrattuali degli individui registrati nel Sistema Informativo Statistico delle Comunicazioni Obbligatorie (SISCO-MLPS). L’applicazione di una strategia econometrica di tipo controfattuale permette quindi di dimostrare come l'utilizzo degli incentivi finanziati all’interno dal programma GG genera – nel breve periodo – un aumento di circa un punto percentuale della quota di assunti sotto i 30 anni, mentre non esercita alcun effetto significativo sulla proporzione di giovani che si separano – per qualsiasi ragione – dalle imprese in cui erano occupati.
Ricci, Chiara Assunta; Scicchitano, Sergio
In this paper two different non-parametric methods are applied to disentangle the role of Great Recession on income polarization in Italy by population groups (gender, occupational status, education, age, residential area and state of birth). Results show a general downgrading, particularly of lower incomes, where low-educated, young, southern and foreign head of household are located out of the crisis. Young people and especially foreigners have suffered the most from the crisis. Thus, the decomposition of the polarization indices by population groups is able to provide specific useful policy indications, tailored to groups’ needs.
Cirillo, Valeria; Fanti, Lucrezia; Mina, Andrea; Ricci, Andrea
New digital technologies can generate substantial gains for adopting businesses. In this paper we put to the test the effects that these technologies have on firm performance. More specifically, we analyse the impact of new technologies associated with the Industry 4.0 paradigm on labour productivity, average wages and sales growth. The analysis is based on data drawn from Rilevazione Imprese e Lavoro (RIL) Survey run by the Inapp on a large representative sample of Italian firms.
Damiani, Mirella; Pompei, Fabrizio; Ricci, Andrea
This paper analyses the impact of a tax break for incentive pay (introduced in Law n. 208/2015) on labour productivity and average wages in Italian firms. We use a unique source of firm-level information provided by Rilevazione su Imprese e Lavoro - Istituto nazionale per l’analisi delle politiche pubbliche (RIL-Inapp) surveys merged with the Orbis archive over a three-year reference period 2010-2014-2018.
Biagetti, Marco; Scicchitano, Sergio; Vannutelli, Silvia
The Routine Biased Technological Change (RBTC) has been called as a relatively novel technology-based explanation of social changes like job and wage polarization. In this paper we investigate the wage inequality between routine and non-routine workers along the wage distribution in Italy.
Brunetti, Irene; Corsini, Lorenzo; Martelli, Irene
Authors try to assess the Covid-19’s and the lockdown policy’s impact on the attitude and capability of women toward work and labour force participation. Data used come from an online survey on women working conditions before and during the lockdown as well as their perspective on their post-lockdown situation.The analysis carried out relies on Item Response Theory to estimate a latent measure that captures the capability of women to commit fruitfully in their work activities. Such estimation has been used to compare how the lockdown impacted on this factor. The results suggest a predictable worsening of the women working conditions and perspectives, but they also show that this worsening was not symmetric across all the categories of women.
In seguito alla pandemia, il passaggio dalla lezione frontale, effettuata nelle scuole, alla lezione online, realizzata da casa con le proprie attrezzature, è stato molto rapido e il sistema dell'istruzione non ha avuto il tempo di accompagnare e preparare gli insegnanti all'utilizzo delle nuove tecnologie e delle metodologie didattiche innovative. Alla luce di questo nuovo scenario, è stata condotta un'indagine esplorativa che ha osservato il processo di transizione del corpo docente caratterizzata da numerose difficoltà impreviste e operata in forma emergenziale. Scopo dell'indagine è stato quello di indagare l'effetto dell'emergenza Covid-19 sulla nuova organizzazione e pianificazione delle modalità di lavoro dei docenti, in particolare rilevando le problematiche educative e tecnologiche.
Dalla Fase 1 alla Fase 2: quale transizione per uomini e donne? Sintesi survey. Il lavoro di uomini e donne in tempo di Covid. Una prospettiva di genere
A partire dal post lockdown, si è avviata una delle più complesse transizioni degli ultimi anni, in cui la ripresa dell’attività produttiva e lavorativa si inserisce in una riorganizzazione del lavoro e della vita sociale improntata a nuove regole di relazione e funzione, in un clima di generale incertezza circa gli esiti e i tempi di fuoriuscita dall’emergenza pandemica. Questa transizione non è un processo uniforme, né tantomeno "neutro" ma ha applicazioni e ricadute diverse su uomini e donne. La survey “Il lavoro di uomini e donne in tempo di Covid. Una prospettiva di genere” ha dedicato uno specifico modulo ad indagare come uomini e donne affrontano questa fase di passaggio rispetto ai temi della condizione lavorativa, organizzazione familiare, incidenza del care burden, effetti della situazione in ambito personale/familiare, valutazioni economiche, paure, priorità, prospettive.
Within-firm inequality in workdays and labour productivity: evidence from linked employer-employee Italian data
Bloise, Francesco; Cirillo, Valeria; Raitano, Michele; Ricci, Andrea
Using a longitudinal dataset built by merging survey and administrative datasets on Italian firms, we investigate the association between productivity growth and labour flexibility by focusing on the role of inequality of yearly workdays within firms. In addition to a negative association between productivity and the share of fixed-term employment, we find a further negative association between this type of within-firm inequality and productivity. This finding suggests that higher inequality in workdays may weaken cooperation among workers, affecting labour productivity.
Dosi, Giovanni; Fanti, Lucrezia; Virgillito, Maria Enrica
This pandemic is producing the most severe crisis after the Great Depression and has been used to implement forms of massive social control hardly conceivable in ‘advanced democracies’. Butterfly effects are well-known in complexity sciences. However, social scientists have still difficulties in understanding how a grain can make the sandcastle fall down. On the contrary, we are now under the actual risk of starting a ‘new normal’ without dealing with the deep routes and origins of this crisis, with the dominant intellectual discourse pushing for maintaining and indeed reinforcing the status quo, established power and social blocks. This myopic strategy might end up in collectively disruptive socio-political transformations.
Cirillo, Valeria; Fanti, Lucrezia; Mina, Andrea; Ricci, Andrea
New enabling technologies are shaping the transformation of production activities. This process of change is characterised by growing digitization, inter-connectivity and automation. The diﬀusion of new technologies is, however, very uneven, and firms display diﬀerent adoption patterns. By using the panel component of the RIL-Inapp survey wave of 2018, we explore the patterns and determinants of new technology adoption in a large representative sample of Italian firms. We build our theoretical framework on the nexus between technology and the quality and organisation of work. We then provide novel econometric evidence on the positive eﬀects of human capital and training.
Brunetti, Irene; Martino, Enrica M.; Ricci, Andrea
This paper analyses the effect of hiring incentives on firms’ employment. At this aim, we use micro-data drawn from Rilevazione su Imprese Lavoro (RIL), a survey conducted by Inapp in 2010, 2015 and 2018 on a representative sample of limited liability and partnership firms. Applying a policy evaluation framework, we demonstrate that the use of incentives causes a significant increase of the share of newly hired workers in the shortrun. Moreover, we show that the overall positive effect of hiring incentives are driven by industrial sector rather than services one. Finally, these results are robust to econometric methods that controls for both firms’ unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity issues.
Cassandro, Nicola; Centra, Marco; Esposito, Piero; Guarascio, Dario
Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011-2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routineintensive occupations do not display – on average – higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. However, on distinguishing between cognitive and manual tasks, it turns out that workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks (such as workers employed in service occupations as cashiers or call-center operators) are in fact exposed to a relatively higher risk of becoming unemployed.
All that glitters is not gold. Influence of working from home on income inequality at the time of Covid - 19
Bonacini, Luca; Gallo, Giovanni; Scicchitano, Sergio
The recent global Covid-19 pandemic forced most of governments in developed countries to introduce severe measures limiting people mobility freedom in order to contain the infection spread. Consequently, working from home (WFH) procedures became of great importance for a large part of employees, since they represent the only option to both continue working and keep staying home. Based on influence function regression methods, our paper explores the role of WFH attitude across labour income distribution in Italy. Results show that increasing WFH attitudes of occupations would lead to a rise of wage inequality among Italian employees.
Bergamante, Francesca; Canal, Tiziana; Marucci, Marco
L’emergenza sanitaria legata al Covid-19 ha riaperto in modo prorompente il dibattito sul nostro Servizio sanitario nazionale, sottolineandone capacità e resilienza, ma anche debolezze strutturali complessive e di alcune realtà in modo specifico. Il contributo analizza la percezione della popolazione nei confronti del sistema sanitario a livello regionale, considerando la valutazione della sanità di base e di quella di emergenza utilizzando i dati dell’indagine Inapp PLUS 2018. I risultati delle analisi sono confrontati con la spesa regionale, con i dati sui posti letto disponibili, con gli indicatori sull’erogazione dei Livelli essenziali di assistenza sanitaria (LEA) e con indicatori relativi all’offerta ospedaliera.
Esposito, Piero; Scicchitano, Sergio
This paper investigates the relation between educational mismatches and individual unemployment risk in Italy with a special focus on the role of technological change and labour demand characteristics. A novel dataset obtained merging two surveys (ICP and PLUS) is used to build different measures of educational mismatch and a measure of routine intensity on Italy: the Routine Task Index. The latter takes into account the effect of Routine Biased Technical Change (RBTC) in determining educational mismatches and unemployment risk. The results indicate that over−education is significantly associated with higher unemployment risk.
Filippi, Michelangelo; Marocco, Manuel; Quaranta, Roberto; Ricci, Andrea
L’emergenza sanitaria ha indotto il Governo italiano a introdurre un sistema di ammortizzatori sociali ‘speciali’ per tutelare il reddito dei lavoratori coinvolti dai provvedimenti di sospensione dell’attività economica. I dati dell’archivio delle Comunicazioni obbligatorie permettono di sviluppare una prima analisi dell’efficacia di questa azione di policy, sulla base dell’ipotesi che le condizioni del mercato del lavoro in Italia tra marzo e maggio 2019 fossero ‘analoghe’ a quelle che si sarebbero verificate, per lo stesso periodo nell’anno corrente, in assenza della crisi sanitaria e del conseguente lockdown delle attività produttive.
Barbieri, Teresa; Basso, Gaetano; Scicchitano, Sergio
We analyse the content of Italian occupations operating in about 600 sectors with a focus on the dimensions that expose workers to contagion risks during the Covid-19 epidemics. To do so we leverage extremely detailed and granular information from ICP, the Italian equivalent of O*Net. We find that several sectors need physical proximity to operate: the workers employed in Italy in sectors whose physical proximity index is above the national average are more than 6.5 million (most of them in retail trade). Groups at risk of contagion and complications from Covid-19 (mainly male above the age of 50) work in sectors that are little exposed to physical proximity, currently under lockdown or can work remotely.
Education-occupation mismatch of migrants in the Italian labour market: the effect of social networks
Van Wolleghem, Pierre George; De Angelis, Marina; Scicchitano, Sergio
Whilst migration has become a structural feature of most European countries, the integration of foreigners in the labour market continues to raise concerns. Evidence across countries shows that migrants are more often over-educated than natives. This article has two objectives: it assesses the extent to which over-education affects migrants and it evaluates the role informal networks play in producing it. We find that foreigners are more over-educated than natives but that the role of networks is consistent across the two groups. Empirical evidence is drawn from the application of quantitative and counter-factual methods to PLUS 2018.
Il lavoro discontinuo di breve e brevissima durata in Italia nell’ultimo decennio: l’evidenza dei dati amministrativi
Filippi, Michelangelo; Marocco, Manuel; Quaranta, Roberto; Scicchitano, Sergio
Sono trascorsi ormai di cinque anni dalla fine della crisi economica e il mercato del lavoro sembra essere profondamente cambiato. Il lavoro appare molto più discontinuo nel tempo rispetto al passato, con periodi di occupazione, il più delle volte inferiori a un anno, alternati a periodi di inattività, sotto-occupazione o disoccupazione. Il documento esamina l’andamento degli avviamenti al lavoro di breve e brevissima durata, facendo riferimento alle tipologie contrattuali che più di altre vengono utilizzate per impiegare lavoro discontinuo nel periodo compreso tra gennaio 2009 e marzo 2019. L’analisi è condotta con l’utilizzo dei dati amministrativi, a cadenza mensile, del Sistema Informativo Statistico delle Comunicazioni Obbligatorie (SISCO).
Incentivi per l’occupazione e contratto a tutele crescenti. Valutazione dell'impatto sulle cessazioni di rapporti di lavoro
Gli incentivi introdotti nel biennio 2015-2016 dalle leggi di stabilità per i rispettivi anni, finalizzati a favorire l'assunzione di lavoratori a tempo indeterminato, secondo uno studio dell'Inapp, hanno avuto un impatto rilevante, generando circa 900 mila assunzioni che, in assenza degli incentivi, avrebbero avuto una forma contrattuale diversa dal tempo indeterminato o non avrebbero avuto luogo. Il lavoro qui proposto intende valutare, prima della scadenza dei tre anni di agevolazione, se vi sia stata una flessione significativa della probabilità di cessazione dei rapporti di lavoro incentivati. La metodologia segue un'approccio controfattuale, identificando l'effetto degli incentivi sulla probabilità di cessazione entro 12 mesi dei rapporti di lavoro che hanno usufruito dello sgravio contributivo.
Dinamica occupazionale, retribuzioni e natura delle mansioni nella PA e nei settori del welfare. Evidenze dai dati Istat-RCFL e Inapp-ICP
Barbieri, Teresa; Centra, Marco; Guarascio, Dario
Proseguendo la linea tracciata da precedenti analisi Inapp concernenti la relazione tra cambiamento tecnologico, mansioni e dinamica occupazionale, si è inteso esplorare la dinamica occupazionale e retributiva dei settori della pubblica amministrazione e del welfare – comparando le performance di tali settori con quelle del resto dell’economia – fornendo, in aggiunta a ciò, un approfondimento specifico sul rischio di ‘disoccupazione tecnologica’ (e.g. sostituzione da parte di macchine o dispositivi informatici delle occupazioni caratterizzate da un tasso preponderante di mansioni ripetitive, codificabili e riproducibili) a cui sono esposti gli occupati impiegati in tali settori.
Fanti, Lucrezia; Guarascio, Dario; Tubiana, Matteo
Relying on a unique integrated database, this work explores the relationship between labour productivity, on one side; intensity and characteristics of companies’ skills need and degree of skill mismatch, on the other. The analysis focuses on a representative sample of Italian limited liability companies observed during the years 2012, 2014 and 2017.
Lis, Maciej; Bonthuis, Boele
This paper explores trends and drivers behind the gender gap in pensions (GGP) in Europe, focusing on countries with notionally defined contribution (NDC) schemes: Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Based on current gender gaps on the labor market, the paper relates the progressivity of pension systems and the coverage of child care-related spells to the GGP. It shows that NDC countries do not stand out as a group compared to other European countries in terms of pension outcomes for women. Nevertheless, NDC countries differ significantly from one another. Choices of indexation of pensions in payment and survivors’ pension options have a strong impact on gender inequalities. Still, labor market differences are the most important driver of the GGP.
Many public policies are impossible to implement without adequate administrative systems in place. This is true for modern pension schemes and in particular, notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes. Today these systems must be digital yet most pension systems predate computerization and must find a way to bridge past and present. The shift from defined benefit (DB) to NDC brings particular challenges in recordkeeping. This paper briefly reviews the administrative requirements of NDCs and offers a simple checklist for countries considering this type of reform. The last section describes a universal NDC scheme that harnesses the modern digital infrastructure that may allow developing countries to overcome the limitations of traditional contributory systems and their reliance on payroll taxes.
This paper reviews the design of private pensions alongside a notional defined contribution (NDC) – or public – component. A mix of public and private pensions is the best way to deliver a strong combination of five core outcomes: coverage, adequacy, sustainability, efficiency, and security. Choices for market structure, benefit type, contributions, and investment strategy can be guided by their impact on these outcomes. The clarity of an NDC formula allows the joint distribution of public and private pensions to be modeled – which can be crucial for optimal investment strategies given, for example, the negative correlation between real per capita gross domestic product growth and equity markets over long periods. NDC payout formulas have broad applications where annuity markets are weak.
Guardiancich, Igor; Weaver, R. Kent; Demarco, Gustavo; Dorfman, Mark C.
Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) schemes offer governments desirable properties in terms of efficiency, fairness, and financial sustainability and an opportunity to deflect the blame for pension cuts. Yet adoptions of NDC schemes largely ground to a halt and several countries retreated from NDC implementation after legislation. Lack of support from powerful international actors is partly to blame, as is the perceived rigidity of NDC in reducing room for policy maneuver. Correct implementation requires substantial administrative capacity. Less demanding automatic stabilizing mechanisms undercut the appeal of NDC in the European Union. Thus, while being an important option for policy makers and a benchmark against which to measure alternative reforms, NDC is unlikely to become the dominant pension design choice anytime soon.
Pensions in a globalizing world: how do (N)DC and (N)DB schemes fare and compare on portability and taxation?
Genser, Bernd; Holzmann, Robert
Pensions and broader forms of retirement income do not stop at national borders. As part of globalization, individuals increasingly spend part of their working or retirement life abroad but want to keep or move their acquired rights, accumulated retirement assets, or benefits in payment freely across borders. This raises the issue of the portability and taxation of cross-border pensions in accumulation and disbursement. This paper addresses both portability and taxation issues from the angle of which type of pension scheme – defined benefits (DB) or defined contributions (DC) – is more aligned with globalization in establishing individual fairness, fiscal fairness, and bureaucratic efficiency. The paper shows that DC schemes tend to dominate DB schemes both at the level of portability and taxation.
Harnessing a young nation's demographic dividends through a universal NDC pension scheme: a case study of Tanzania
Larsson, Bo; Leyaro, Vincent; Palmer, Edward
About one-half of Africa’s population will remain below age 30 well past 2050, with relatively few aged 60 and older. Using Tanzania’s projected demographics and present economic point of departure, this paper demonstrates how the implicit “double” demographic dividend can be harnessed to create inclusive growth. A Swedish-style nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) system is launched where the government can borrow funds from the future through NDC “consol” bonds to transform individual savings into human and physical capital to promote inclusive economic growth. The consol bonds constitute a reserve to cover pensions of the retiring “demographic bubble” in the future as the dependency ratio gradually glides into demographic equilibrium. Minimum transfers to the current elderly are also introduced with the phase-in.
This paper starts from the fact that women receive lower pensions than men on average, and considers policies to address that fact. Women typically have lower wages than men, a greater likelihood of part-time work and more career breaks, and thus generally a less complete contribution record. In addition, pension age may be lower for women and annuities may be priced using separate life tables for women. The paper looks at three strategic ameliorative policy directions: policies intended to increase the size and duration of women’s earnings and hence improve their contribution records; policies to redirect resources within the pension system, including for survivors and after divorce; and ways of boosting women’s pensions with resources from outside the pension system.
Sandbrook, Will; Ravi-Burslem, Ranila
All UK employers now offer a pension scheme including the use of automatic enrollment. More than 9 million people have started saving into a workplace pension as a consequence. NEST is a pension scheme that any employer can use to meet its auto enrollment obligations. It was set up to serve those traditionally poorly served by commercial pension provision. NEST is built around features tested and seen as important and motivating for potential members and employers, underpinned by extensive research with future members and analysis of feedback from existing customers. The communications approach had a major focus on providing reassurance that saving is a “good” thing and NEST will look after one’s money.
Holzmann, Robert; Alonso-Garcia, Jennifer; Labit-Hardy, Heloise; Villegas, Andres M.
A positive relationship between lifetime income and life expectancy leads to a redistribution mechanism when the average cohort life expectancy is applied for annuity calculation. Such a distortion puts into doubt the main features of the NDC (nonfinancial defined contribution) scheme and calls for alternative designs to compensate for the heterogeneity. This paper explores five key mechanisms of compensation: individualized annuities; individualized contribution rates; a two-tier contribution structure with socialized and individual rates; and two supplementary two-tier approaches to deal with the income distribution tails. Using unique American and British data, the analysis indicates that both individualized annuities and two-tier contribution schemes are feasible and effective and thus promising policy options. A de-pooling by gender will be required, however.
Holzmann, Robert; Robalino, David; Hernan, Winkler
Defined contribution (DC) schemes – whether unfunded or funded – are often considered superior to defined benefit (DB) schemes in their ability to address labor market issues, particular in encouraging formal employment and delayed retirement. Conceptually, the assessment is based on superior incentives to work and save. Yet economic and social realities are more complex. This paper explores design and labor market conditions that potentially constrain DC schemes. The paper concludes that to achieve their conceptual potential, DC schemes require design innovations, including a better integration of basic provisions and complementary labor policies that promote job creation in the formal sector and expand job opportunities during old age.
Gal, Robert I.; Rado, Marta
This paper shows that as the educational composition in the 55–64-year-old age bracket improved between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s, the effective retirement age rose rapidly in the Central and Eastern European region. This increase was fast enough to keep life expectancies at the effective retirement age practically unchanged. In effect, the labor market absorbed all improvements in life expectancies in older working ages. The paper also shows that maintaining the current life expectancies at retirement over the next 30 years requires less effort in terms of further raising the effective retirement age than what the region achieved in this respect in the last 15 years.
The impact of lifetime events on pensions: NDC schemes in Poland, Italy, and Sweden and the point scheme in Germany
Chlon-Dominczak, Agnieszka; Gora, Marek; Kotowska, Irena E.; Magda, Iga; Ruzik-Sierdzinska, Anna; Strzelecki, Paweł
The paper focuses on the interrupted careers in four countries where pensions are based on lifetime labor income, but they have different labor market patterns. High levels of employment in Germany and Sweden are in contrast with low levels of employment, particularly for women, in Italy and Poland. Career interruptions of women in Italy mean early withdrawal from the labor market, while in Sweden women choose part-time employment. Lower employment rates and gender pay gaps are important causes of differences in expected pension levels. The pension system design and demographics are also different. Prolonging working lives and reducing gender gaps in employment and pay, particularly for those at risk of interrupted careers, is key to ensure decent old-age pensions.
Lu, Bei; Piggott, John; Zheng, Bingwen
This paper discusses the potential expansion of the role of the notional defined contribution (NDC) paradigm in the ongoing reforms of retirement provision in China. It finds that mature age life expectancy is remarkably uniform among formal sector workers at the time of retirement, although greater heterogeneity does exist for Rural and Urban Residents Pension Scheme members. The implications of a stylized NDC structure are examined covering China’s major pension systems, calibrated to be actuarially neutral. Each system has a different contribution rate and retirement age, consistent with different life expectancies. A complementary social pension is also proposed. The paper concludes that an increased presence of the NDC paradigm has the potential to raise aggregate welfare.
Fornero, Elsa; Oggero, Noemi; Puglisi, Riccardo
This paper is centered on the complementary roles played by pension communication/information and financial literacy for a sustainable and equitable nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) system at both the micro and macro socioeconomic level. The paper presents new evidence on: (i) the concern of public opinion about pensions in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), as approximated by Google Trends data; (ii) the relationship between measures of online search volume and coverage by traditional media (i.e., national newspapers); and (iii) the volume and framing of newspaper coverage for a specific reform (i.e., the 2011 Italian reform). On the demand (users) side, the paper considers pension literacy as an element to increase the effectiveness of reforms.
Boado-Penas, Maria del Carmen; Settergren, Ole; Ekheden, Erland; Naka, Poontavika
It is desirable that pension reforms and legislated rules have the backing of the population or at least are accepted by voters. With the objective of achieving “acceptance,” the Swedish Pensions Agency publishes an annual actuarial balance of the solvency of the whole public pension system and distributes to each participant information on his or her individual accumulated notional balance and funded accounts, movements during the year, and estimates of the projected individual future pension amount. This paper describes the Swedish pension experience in communication with pension participants over the last decade, together with the main changes in information delivered to improve individuals’ pension knowledge and help them make more informed, better decisions on work, savings, and retirement.
Boeri, Tito; Cozzolino, Maria; Di Porto, Edoardo
In the last 30 years the Italian pension system was repeatedly reformed and counter-reformed, increasing uncertainty about future pensions. A low level of financial literacy exacerbated this problem. In 2015, the Italian Social Security Institute (INPS) launched a project to allow all insured workers to have more precise information about their future benefits. This paper analyzes the results of a survey carried out to evaluate the project’s performance. The findings are encouraging – around 80 percent of respondents rate the INPS service as at least “very helpful.” Even if 42 percent of the sample overestimates their future pension, 16–29 percent reveal a willingness to change their expectation on retirement income after receiving new information.
Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes have been successfully implemented since the mid-1990s in a number of European countries (Sweden. Italy, Latvia, Poland, and Norway). The NDC approach features the lifelong contribution–benefit link of a financial defined contribution scheme, but is based on the pay-as-you-go format. An NDC approach implemented by the rulebook can manage the economic and demographic risks inherent to a pension scheme and by design creates financial sustainability. This paper offers a nontechnical introduction to NDC schemes, their basic elements and advantages over nonfinancial defined benefit schemes, the key technical frontiers of the approach, and the experiences of countries with NDC schemes.
Palmer, Edward; Stabina, Sandra
Latvia introduced a nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) scheme in 1996 as it transitioned to a market economy. Despite a 20 percent decline in the working-age population from 1994-2016, the ratio of contributors to old-age pensioners rose from 1.6 to 2.1 given a steady increase in formal labor force participation and 5-6 percent real per capita wage growth. Projections show that long-term financial balance will be maintained through 2070, despite the threat of a projected 50 percent decline in the working-age population. Budgeted reserves will cushion the continued transition into a two-pillar public pension scheme. Latvia’s most important long-term policy challenge is to create the domestic investments and economic growth to reward younger workers for remaining in the country.
Buchholtz, Sonia; Dominczak, Chlon-Agnieszka; Gora, Marek
Poland’s pension system faces multiple challenges, including accelerating population aging. Early retirement policy aimed at mitigating mass exit from the labor market led to the rise of pension system economic dependency. Transition to a nonfinancial and financial defined contribution (NDC+FDC) system in 1999 mitigated the fiscal risk and an unfair balance of interest between the working and retired generations. The new system separated the income allocation and redistribution. The retirement age was raised. However, the implementation of the new system is a case study of misuse for current political goals, ad hoc tweaks, and unfinished topics. Yet the 1999 pension reform met its goals.
Palmer, Edward; Konberg, Bo
Sweden’s reform began with a published sketch in 1992, and developed into nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) legislation in 1994. This paper discusses the underpinnings of the Swedish NDC scheme’s financial stability, factors influencing the adequacy of benefits, and its interplay with other components of the pension system: the public financial defined contribution scheme, the minimum pension guarantee, and the occupational schemes. The paper also includes information on the December 2017 broad six-party political agreement on forthcoming legislation. It concludes with recommendations for additional improvements in the overall old-age pension system, based on the analysis of financial stability, adequacy, and differences in outcomes, and the interaction of the NDC scheme with the guarantee benefits and the occupational schemes.
Gronchi, Sandro; Nistico, Sergio; Bevilacqua, Mirko
Starting from a reconstruction of the political context in which the Italian 1995 pension reform took shape, this paper reviews the essential features of the 1995 and post-1995 legislation and assesses its fundamental shortcomings. A straightforward theoretical discussion highlights both the targets and the instruments representing the hallmark of the nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) model. The contrast of such theoretical premises with the Italian legislation points out the persistent original mistakes together with the necessary remedies.
Gora, Marek; Palmer, Edward
This paper defines a universal public pension scheme (UPPS) as a government-mandated lifecycle longevity insurance scheme that transfers individual consumption from the working years to retirement. It discusses the differences in four UPPS designs designated as either defined contribution (DC) or defined benefit (DB), and financial or nonfinancial. With individual DC accounts, the ball is in the individual’s court. The transparent link between contributions and retirement income is the enabler of efficiency that – through marginal decisions to choose formal work over informal work or leisure and to postpone retirement marginally toward the end of the working life – supports affordability and sustainability for a chosen level of adequacy. Hence, UPPS-DC designs are found superior to UPPS-DB designs.
In 2008, Chile introduced a New Solidarity Pillar (NSP) designed to eliminate the incidence of poverty among elderly adults by setting a floor at around 40 percent of the minimum monthly income for the poorest 60 percent of the population. This paper describes the NSP’s main characteristics and the main results achieved during its first seven years of operations: coverage, fiscal cost, poverty reduction, and the system’s role in reducing the significant gender gap in pensions. Its effects on incentives to contribute are discussed, as well as the literature that has attempted to measure these effects. Finally, the main challenges facing the NSP and the implications for other countries under defined contribution pension schemes are summarized.
Nelson, Kenneth; Nieuwenhuis, Rense; Alm, Susanne
This paper analyzes old-age incomes in Sweden from a pension policy perspective, focusing on both the economic position of elderly citizens and the redistributive effects of the pension system’s different parts. The empirical analyses show that each subsequent cohort that reaches retirement age faces higher relative poverty risks than previous cohorts. The relative decline in the value of the guaranteed minimum pension vis-à-vis the real income growth of wage earners brings to the forefront the issues of indexation of the guarantee and the ceiling on the meanstested housing benefits – i.e., the basic safety net for pensioners.
Nectarios, Milton; Tinios, Platon
Greece’s current pension system relies almost exclusively on the state and remains staunchly pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and defined benefit (DB). This paper offers a radical proposal for change: (i) a new multipillar notional and financial defined contribution (NDC and FDC) pension system for all generations first insured after 1993, with contribution rates for primary pensions reduced by 50 percent; and (ii) a transitional system for those first insured before 1993. The proposal’s robustness is tested actuarially for the period up to 2060. Though financing the legacy cost would be challenging, the quantitative exercise indicates that a radical pension reform, especially if implemented as a part of an overall recovery package, could set the country on a more favorable growth trajectory.
Stolen, Nils Martin; Fredriksen, Dennis; Hernaes, Erik; Holmoy, Erling
The main goals of reforming the Norwegian old-age pension system toward nonfinancial defined contributions (NDC) in 2011 were to improve long-run fiscal sustainability and labor supply incentives. Maintaining much of the redistributive effects of the former public pension system was also an important concern. Econometric analyses reveal the 2011 reform’s significant effects on postponing retirement. Results from a dynamic microsimulation model show that the reform is expected to have substantial effects on old-age pension expenditures in the long run without any large negative distributional effects. Macroeconomic analyses indicate that the reform is likely to make a great fiscal impact in the long run, and higher employment plays an important role in this aspect.
Lee, Ron; Sanchez-Romero, Miguel
Differences in life expectancy between high and low socioeconomic groups are often large and have widened in recent decades. In the United States, the differences may now be as large as 10 to 14 years. These longevity gaps strongly affect the actuarial fairness and progressivity of many public pension systems, raising the question of possible policy reforms to address this issue. This paper reviews the empirical literature on the longevity differences across socioeconomic groups and their impacts on lifetime benefits, considers how these impacts depend on four different pay-as-you-go pension structures (calibrated on the US case), and discusses some policy options.
Palmer, Edward; de Gosson de Varennes, Yuwei Zhao
This paper identifies and discusses four issues in creating annuities in (nonfinancial) defined contribution (NDC) schemes that are essential for systems’ financial stability and fair inter/intragenerational redistribution. The first issue is the choice between incorporating the rate of return into the annuity or into the exogenous indexation. The second issue is in choosing a projection method for life expectancy that produces systematically unbiased estimates. The third issue is at what age the projection of life expectancy is to be fixed over the remaining lifetime of the annuity. The final issue is the prevalence of socioeconomic heterogeneity within the insurance pool.
Rosano, Aldo; Pagliarella, Maria Chiara
L’opinione della popolazione sulle vaccinazioni è un argomento poco investigato in letteratura. Il presente studio intende delineare il profilo degli italiani che hanno opinioni diverse sui vaccini e la loro fiducia nei confronti della comunità scientifica. L’analisi è stata condotta a partire dai dati della European Social Survey (ESS), rilevati da Inapp nel corso del 2017, con l’obiettivo di analizzare il profilo socio-culturale dei rispondenti alla domanda sulla presunta nocività dei vaccini mediante un modello di regressione logistica.
Esposito, Piero; Collignon, Stefan; Scicchitano, Sergio
The migrant crisis is one of the most challenging tasks the EU has ever faced. In this paper, we assess the impact of immigration and unemployment for a sample of 15 EU countries between 1997 and 2016. We test for the existence of a core-periphery dualism based on differences in macroeconomic fundamentals and labour market characteristics. We use a Panel Error Correction Model to assess the direction and persistence of the impact of immigration on domestic unemployment in the short and in the long run. In the long run, immigration is found to reduce unemployment in all peripheral-countries. In core countries, we find no long-run impact of immigration on unemployment due to substantial heterogeneity. As for short-run dynamics, we find a confirmation of the result that immigration reduces unemployment for the whole sample.
Cirillo, Valeria; Evangelista, Rinaldo; Guarascio, Dario; Sostero, Matteo
This paper explores the relation between the digitalization of labour processes, the level of routineness of tasks and changes in employment. The levels of digitalization and routineness of occupations in 796 5-digit ISCO occupational groups are measured using data from a unique Italian occupational-level survey on skill, task and work contents – the Inapp-Istat Survey on Italian Occupations (ICP), an O*NET-type dataset. We develop three novel digitalization indices: a digital use index measuring the use of digital devices and technologies in the workplace, a digital skills index assessing the familiarity and skill in using digital technologies, and a digital tasks index capturing the frequency and importance of selected digital tasks.
Bloise, Francesco; Brunetti, Irene; Cirillo, Valeria
In this paper, we explore the main drivers of firm-level labour share focusing on a sample of medium-large Italian firms. Taking advantage of the Rilevazione Imprese e Lavoratori (RIL) run by Inapp in 2010 and 2015, we explore the main drivers of changes in labour share on a heterogeneous sample of firms emphasizing different mechanisms at work among those firms showing higher labour share and firms with lower labour share. The results suggest an overall pattern of polarization: “more unequal firms” register a decline in labour share over the crisis, while the so-called “more equal firms” show an increase of the labour share even during the crisis period.
Ferri, Valentina; Ricci, Andrea; Vittori, Claudia
The recent positive immigration trend, that has characterized Europe over the last three decades, has generated an ongoing debate on the role played by immigrants on many aspects of the labour markets. We fill a gap in the literature by offering the first evidence for Italy, on the relationship between immigration from extra EU and labour productivity. We take advantage of a rich and unique firm level data from the Rilevazione Imprese e Lavoro (RIL) conducted by Inapp in 2007, 2010 and 2015 on a representative sample of Italian firms.
De Minicis, Massimo; Dona, Silvia; Lettieri, Nicola; Marocco, Manuel
La distribuzione e organizzazione del lavoro mediante piattaforme costituisce senza dubbio uno degli aspetti più attuali e discussi dell’economia digitale. La sfida da affrontare è quella di elaborare nuove strategie regolative capaci di offrire ai lavoratori tutele effettive sul piano economico, previdenziale e delle condizioni di lavoro, conciliando il tutto con le esigenze dello sviluppo. Le labour platform non aprono solo inedite prospettive di sviluppo economico, ma pongono anche una serie di questioni che appaiono ben lontane dall’essere risolte. Il paper affronta il tema ponendosi nella prospettiva della tecno-regolazione, paradigma di evoluzione del diritto nel quale la tecnologia tende a configurarsi non solo come oggetto, ma anche come parte integrante del processo regolativo.
Brunetti, Irene; Cirillo, Valeria; Intraligi, Valerio; Ricci, Andrea
This paper analyzes the relation between specialization in routine tasks and the growth of low-skill jobs in Italian provinces. At this aim we use data of the Labour Force Survey (RCFL-ISTAT) integrated with information about the Italian provinces’ specialization in routine tasks derived from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET). Following the empirical strategy proposed by Autor and Dorn (2013), we find the following results. First, in the period between 2004 and 2017, the routine tasks specialization leads to a significant increase in the growth of low-skill/low-wage occupations at province level. Second, if we focus on university-educated workers, the impact of provinces’ specialization in routine tasks on the growth of low-skill/low wage jobs slightly increases. This result suggests that the local employment specialization in routine tasks might be also associated with increasing over-education patterns in Italy. Finally, our findings are robust to an econometric strategy that controls for endogeneity issues.
Scicchitano, Sergio; Biagetti, Marco; Chirumbolo, Antonio
This article employs a Counterfactual Decomposition Analysis (CDA) using both a semi-parametric and a non-parametric method to examine the pay gap, over the entire wage distribution, between secure and insecure workers on the basis of perceived job insecurity. Using the 2015 INAPP Survey on Quality of Work, our results exhibit a mirror J-shaped pattern in the pay gap, with a significant sticky floor effect, i.e. the job insecurity more relevant at the lowest quantiles. This pattern is mainly due to the characteristics effect, while the relative incidence of the coefficient component accounts roughly for 22 up to 36% of the total difference, being more relevant at the bottom of the wage distribution.
Gualtieri, Valentina; Guarascio, Dario; Quaranta, Roberto
Taking advantage of a dataset providing O*Net-type information on the task content of Italian occupations, this work analyses empirically if and to what extent employment patterns are affected by task characteristics in terms of “relative routinarity”. The investigation focuses on the 2005-2016 period relying on a panel including all Italian 4-digit occupations.
Berton, Fabio; Dughera, Stefano; Ricci, Andrea
We study the unions-innovation correlation using micro-data on Italian non-agricultural firm. The key finding of the paper is that unionized firms have a higher and statistically significant probability of filing patents than their non-union competitors in Italy. While corroborating the evidence that unionisation does not – generally speaking – inhibit innovation in Europe (while the opposite hold true in North America), our study is the first to show that such effect is unambiguously positive in the Italian pre-crisis context and also that it is far more significant than in the rest of Europe. The result is at odds with the de-unionisation path which has characterised Italy over the last decades and thus needs to be interpreted in terms of policy suggestions.
Neodualism in the Italian business firms: training, organizational capabilities and productivity distributions
Dosi, Giovanni; Guarascio, Dario; Ricci, Andrea; Virgillito, Maria Enrica
What has been the dynamics of productivity in the Italian business firms in the aftermath of the crisis? And what has been the impact of training efforts upon such dynamics? In this work we address these questions exploring a unique Italian microlevel dataset which links information on the amount and the nature of training and the balance-sheet data.